I. PROJECTED ULTRA-DEEPWATER PRODUCTION START-UPS OVER THE NEXT DECADE
1. The Ultra-Deepwater Gulf of Mexico
Major plays in ultra-deepwater
Ultra-deepwater topography
2. Trend Toward Deepwater Production
3. Estimated Recoverable Reserves in Ultra-Deepwater
4. Active Ultra-Deepwater Leases
5. Activity on Ultra-Deepwater Leases
Two fields now producing
Five fields being developed
More than 140 wells spudded in ultra-deepwater
About 80 ultra-deepwater drilling permits
Almost 100 deepwater drilling plans
Currently drilling on six ultra-deepwater blocks
6. Undrilled Acreage in Ultra-Deepwater
Criteria used to segment undrilled leases
Short list of priority undrilled sites
7. Portfolio of 170 Ultra-Deepwater Development Sites
8. Constraints Imposed by Drilling Equipment
Demand for ultra-deepwater drilling equipment
Shortfall in current rig availability
Equipment supply will meter pace of development
9. A Scenario for Site Start-Ups
Fields in development stage - next 2 to 4 years
Sites already spudded - 3 to 6 years out
Drilling permits applied for - 4 to 7 years out
Drill plans filed - 5 to 8 years out
Big ticket undrilled sites - 6 to 9 years out
Other priority undrilled sites - 7 to 10 years out
II. PIPELINE VS. SHUTTLE TANKER AS THE TRANSPORT SOLUTION
1. Pipeline Transport
Existing pipeline infrastructure in the GOM
Mardi Gras Transportation System
Challenges of ultra-deepwater & rough terrain
Estimated pipeline capex per mile
Estimated pipeline operating cost per barrel-mile
2. Shuttle Tankers
Shuttle tankers in other offshore areas
Operating profile and technical requirements
Shuttle tanker features required in the Gulf of Mexico
The issue of fog on the Gulf Coast
Sourcing & ownership restrictions unique to U.S.
Estimated capex for 550,000 bbl U.S. shuttle tanker
U.S. shuttle tanker estimated annual operating cost
3. Cost Comparisons of the Two Transport Options
Walker Ridge 633 to Lake Charles
Green Canyon 845 to Lake Charles
Garden Banks 949 to Lake Charles
Atwater Valley 113 to Lake Charles
4. Breakeven Distance to Infrastucture
Breakeven distance in rugged terrain
Breakeven distance in smooth terrain
Base case breakeven scenario
III. SHUTTLE TANKERS REQUIRED THROUGH 2010
1. Development Sites Likely to Require Shuttle Tanker
Surrounding terrain
Proximity to infrastructure
Segmentation of sites
Location & operators of "shuttle tanker friendly" sites
2. Forecast of Shuttle Tanker Requirements
Probabilities that sites will move to production
Projected number of production sites
Projected daily oil production
Number and timing of required shuttle tankers
Sensitivity of the forecast
IV. PROPOSED DESIGNS, BUILDING CAPACITY AND FINANCING ISSUES
1. Proposed Shuttle Tanker Designs
Articulated tug/barge
Coastal product tanker conversion
Coscol Marine's design
Navion/Skaugen's design
Conoco's Gomax Simplicity class tanker
Selecting among the design options
2. Building Capacity in the U.S.
Five yards eyeing shuttle tanker construction
Two yards could bid, but are geared to denser ships
Another yard has capability, but requires investment
Better business alternatives could limit competition
3. Financing Options
Direct purchase of ships by the field operator
Partnership among field operators to buy ships
Long-term charter, back-to-back building contract
Contracts of affreightment from field operators
Government guarantee of the ship financing
The financing options compared
APPENDICES
1. Ultra-Deepwater Leases in the Gulf of Mexico
2. Wells Spudded in Water Depth of 5,000 ft. or Greater
3. Applications for Permit to Drill in Ultra-Deepwater Since 1999
4. Ultra-Deepwater Drilling Plans Filed Since 1999
5. Deepwater Drilling Activity in the Gulf of Mexico as of April 2001
6. Portfolio and Mapping of 170 Ultra-Deepwater Development Sites
7. Merchant Marine Act 1920, Section 27
8. Cost Estimates and Assumptions for Transport Options from Four Fields
to the Citgo Refinery in Lake Charles