March 26 2008 Business Times

Global Production of Floaters Accelerating

IMA expects S'pore to continue to enjoy booming orders for FPSO conversion

by

Oh Boon Ping

 

(SINGAPORE) Worldwide production of floaters is growing at an accelerating pace, according to findings by the International Maritime Associates (IMA). 

And Singapore will continue to see booming orders in the FPSO (floating production, storage and offloading) conversion sector here, it added.

In its March report, the IMA said that there are now 212 floating production systems in operation worldwide - 2.5 times the number of units operating 10 years ago.

FPSO vessels now comprise 62 per cent of the current total, while production semis, tension leg platform, production spars and production barges took up the rest.

There are also 86 floating storage/offloading vessels (without production capabilty) in service worldwide.

The current backlog comprises 65 production floaters, 10 floating storage units and 2 jack-up mobile offshore production units.

However, the IMA notes that backlog of production floaters is a drop of 4 units from the figure seen in November last year, due to "a peaking of deliveries over the past several months and a slowdown in order intake during the third and fourth quarters of 2007". 

The report said it has identified 134 projects now in the bidding, design or planning stage that could require a floating production or storage system.

Of these, 39 could start within the next 12 to 18 months and almost half of the near term projects are in South-East Asia (10) or West Africa (9).

Speaking to BT, IMA's head Jim McCaul said that outlook in Singapore's FPSO conversion sector remains bright, as the yards here have been "contracted to perform 19 of the 29 tanker-to-FPSO conversions now underway". Big players here include Keppel and Jurong Shipyard.

"It's a great business -and for the foreseeable future there is no end in sight to the booming orders. We believe the growth in production floaters is at the exponential stage," he adds.

Given the strong underlying market fundamentals, IMA now forecasts 130 to 158 production floater orders between 2008 and 2013.

Mr McCaul said, "In the 12 years since IMA has been tracking the production floater market, the fundamentals driving the sector have never been stronger."

Key factors driving demand include the growing oil consumption, rising prices of oil as well as positive outlook on E&P spending.

Citing the International Energy Agency (IEA), IMA said that demand for oil may grow this year at a rate of 2.1 per cent, while long-term oil demand could surge 35 per cent from now and 2030.

"Satisfying this demand requires 30 million barrels per day of new oil supply to be brought on stream over the next two decades - and this does not take into account the need to find additional oil to offset the loss of supply from depleting fields."

Moreover, crude spot prices in January breached US$100 in midday trading and in February closed above US$100. Industry analysts are also predicting oil prices to remain very strong, while natural gas futures price for delivery four years out has also increased.

Based on a survey of 344 exploration and production (E&P) companies by Lehman Brothers, capital expenditures for E&P activity are expected to rise 11 per cent this year, after the 14 per cent increase seen in 2007.

Of the companies surveyed that have both onshore and offshore activities, 43 per cent expected to earmark a larger percentage of their E&P budget to offshore projects. Of particular interest, 85 per cent of these companies said they expect to focus more on deepwater activities in 2008.

The IMA's floater report is published three times a year and more information on the report is available at www.imastudies.com.

This article appeared in the March 26 2008 issue of Singapore Business Times